Different Polls - And Not Only Queensland

http://www.crikey.com.au/2015/01/09

My faith in democracy being somewhat restored by the astounding result in Queensland, I was prompted to look at what is happening elsewhere. When I came across this comparative graphic (http://media.crikey.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/bludgertrack-stateprimary-2014-12-28.png), though, my first reaction was dismay.

How is it that WA is the only state where there is clear daylight between the Liberals/Nationals and the ALP? Although all states are showing a closing in primary vote between the two, in no other state is there such a gap.

Then I look at the Green and PUP figures. PUP has virtually disappeared in WA over the past 6 months - and this has no doubt limited what would otherwise have been a substantial fall in the Lib/Nat primary vote.

And look at the Greens, as well, where the WA primary vote, although slightly below its peak of mid-2014 is higher than any other state - including the party's birthplace, Tasmania.

Factor in these two features and WA looks a lot more like the other states.

Less than a year ago, there were only two Labor governments in Australia - and one of those (South Australia) was widely expected to lose the March election. It is now history that Labor held on in South Australia - followed by defeat of a first-term LNP government in Victoria and now defeat of another first-term LNP government in Queensland.

And who knows what will happen in New South Wales on 28th March. For the LNP to lose government would require an even larger swing against them (14.7%) than in in Queensland (http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2013/10/201-new-south-wales-electoral-pendulum.html) - but if Toxic Tony stays on as PM (as he has said he will), who know what might be possible. The polls in NSW seem to be suggesting that yet another first-term LNP government could fall - look at the disappearing primary vote gap since September 2013, the decline of the PUP vote and the strength of the Greens.

Toxic Tony and Col Pot (in WA) are looking increasingly isolated. Toxic Tony, despite his protestations, will be gone before long (possibly before the NSW election) and all that is saving Col is the dearth of talent in his party and the fixed 4-year term. Mind you, if Col persists with his proposed City of Perth Act gerrymander and is defeated in the Parliament, even that might not save him.